Contrarian Football Pools
So every year I enter Erol's football pool (formerly known as Dave's football, formerly known as Rob's football pool). I don't really know why-- I'm awful at it. I think I won the first week I ever entered (in 1998?) and haven't won since.
Several years ago, I started having my friend Tim do the nerdy part of it (choose the probability a team will win) and I just did the normal (pick winners vs. the spread).
Tim is awful at it too. In fact, through the first 13 weeks of the season, Tim was in 59th place out of 63 people. I was doing even worse: Also 59th place, but tied for it.
If Tim is that bad at it, why shouldn't I do the opposite of what he does? If he thinks the Eagles will win, I'll pick them to lose. This isn't quite how it works, of course, since the different types of pools make it so that we could both be right. Or, more likely, wrong. But, if he keeps doing poorly, shouldn't I do a bit better?
Starting in week 13, I tested my strategy. For weeks 13-16, Tim has improved to 56th place.
But my strategy of doing whatever he doesn't do? For weeks 13-16, I'm tied for first. And, in week 16, I won the pool.
Thanks Tim! Maybe Contrarian Investing really does work.
Several years ago, I started having my friend Tim do the nerdy part of it (choose the probability a team will win) and I just did the normal (pick winners vs. the spread).
Tim is awful at it too. In fact, through the first 13 weeks of the season, Tim was in 59th place out of 63 people. I was doing even worse: Also 59th place, but tied for it.
If Tim is that bad at it, why shouldn't I do the opposite of what he does? If he thinks the Eagles will win, I'll pick them to lose. This isn't quite how it works, of course, since the different types of pools make it so that we could both be right. Or, more likely, wrong. But, if he keeps doing poorly, shouldn't I do a bit better?
Starting in week 13, I tested my strategy. For weeks 13-16, Tim has improved to 56th place.
But my strategy of doing whatever he doesn't do? For weeks 13-16, I'm tied for first. And, in week 16, I won the pool.
Thanks Tim! Maybe Contrarian Investing really does work.
posted by Eric at 10:49 AM
2 Comments:
If you post an annoying commercial message on a blog, but no one reads it, can I still make fun of Victor?
Eric,
talking about annoying commercial messages...Who used to force fellow SB members to watch over and over that commercial tape from some para-medical friend of yours? I guess you did not have much luck convincing people to purchase the product... is it why you left?
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